hoopGM | Starting Your Season Strong
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Jeremy Wagner has been playing fantasy basketball for 14 years and has won several championships along the way (and he did not have to enter several leagues a year to do so). Here you will find articles that explain some of his favorite fantasy basketball strategies as well as advice on hot prospects and other players that have caught his eye.
The tried and true sports cliché tells us that championships cannot be won in the first month of the season, but they can be lost. Follow these early season guidelines and your chances for success will increase greatly.
Draft to win
Drafting prospects can be exciting, especially in keeper leagues, and if you get one right the gratification is huge, but how many drafts picks have been wasted on the Kwame Browns and Eddy Currys of the league over the years? Stick to sure things in the first half of the draft and throw in a couple of sleepers as the sure things dwindle away. A team of projects might pay off in three or four years, but it is not much fun to enter rebuilding mode the first week of the first season of your new keeper league.
Do not overpay
Adding the context of salary can really make prospects and sleepers dangerous. If you take a prospect early you may not be able to afford his lack of production. Paying a player $4 million not to produce is much more difficult than paying him $2 million. Drafting a project type player too early can make it difficult to hold on to him even though he may be worth it in the future. For example, in one of my personal leagues with an 8 round draft to restock rosters, a GM drafted J.R. Smith 46th overall giving him a salary of $3.5 million. Another GM drafted Al Jefferson 69th overall and only had to pay him $1.2 million. Guess which one made it through the season without being waived? J.R. Smith could be a very good player as early as next year, but the high salary made it impossible to hang onto him.
Do not fall in love with your draftees
I know Tyson Chandler should have a breakout year. He has recovered from his back problems and has shown great potential on defense. He is a good pick late in a draft, but when it becomes obvious early on in the season that he is not playing or performing; do not be afraid to dump him for player with a better chance of performing at a level you need. However…
Do not dump your players too quickly
It is very difficult to balance these two guidelines. If you have a player with a proven track record who is underperforming do not panic and cut him or trade him. This is especially true for players in a new team who still have the same role same they did on their previous team. For example, Tracy McGrady started off very slowly last year in Houston. GMs who traded him out of frustration for less than full value ended up regretting what they did later in the season when he got back into his groove. It is one thing to admit you missed on a sleeper or a project and look to find a better player early in the season, but do not call it quits on a quality player who is simply suffering a slow start or is having to adjust to new surroundings.
Leave a floating spot open
Take advantage of early season injuries by leaving a spot on your roster available for players who get extended playing time because of injury. Teams who took advantage of injuries to Mike James and Chris Kaman benefited from good performances by Mo Williams and Chris Wilcox. There are always a handful of players who end up starting the season off hot thanks to a teammate’s injury. Any early season boost is worth it. I claimed Speedy Claxton for one week early on when Derek Fisher was hurt and ended up winning the week. Now with six weeks left I am tied for the lead. Those two points are really looking big now.
You can always make up for a bad draft with good waiver wire work. Waiting out a slow start by hanging on to a solid player can pay off in the end. Above all you need to remain flexible. Keep emotion out of it. I passed on drafting Karl Malone early on in my fantasy life because I did not like him as a player. I learned not to do that again. A couple of years later in the same league, Karl led my team to back to back titles. GM’s who can admit their mistakes will be much better off than those who do not.
ARTICLES: Out of Contention? Build Towards Next Season | Never Reward Incompetence